Analiza toplinskih valova u Europi za simulacije modelom Speedy

master's thesis

• Title (english): European heat waves analysis based on Speedy model simulations
• Author: Zrinka Drmić
• Mentor: Ivana Herceg Bulić (mentor)
• Committee member: Ivana Herceg Bulić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Zoran Pasarić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ivica Sović (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Zvjezdana Bencetić Klaić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Iva Dasović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Geophysics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-10-20, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Geophysics; Meteorology and Climatology

Abstract

Toplinski valovi su razdoblja iznadprosječno vrućeg vremena na određenom području koja traju više uzastopnih dana. Učestalost i intenzitet toplinskih valova porasli su u posljednjih nekoliko desetljeća, a same pojave imaju veliki utjecaj na ljudsko zdravlje i gospodarstvo, osobito u urbanim područjima. Europu su pogodili osobito snažni toplinski valovi 2003. i 2010. godine. U dosadašnjim istraživanjima proučavani su uzroci i mehanizmi nastanka toplinskih valova, među kojima je i utjecaj anomalije površinske temperature mora.

U svrhu proučavanja utjecaja međugodišnje varijabilnosti površinske temperature Atlantskog oceana, korištena su dva ansambla simulacija modelom SPEEDY koji su dobiveni kao rezultat dvaju eksperimenata; CTRL, u kojem postoji međugodišnja varijabilnost površinske temperature mora (SST) te CLIM, gdje su za svaku godinu postavljene klimatološke vrijednosti SST-a. Signal koji se dobiva u slučaju eksperimenta CTRL je pretežito jači od signala eksperimenta CLIM. Analizirana je prostorna raspodjela i anomalija indeksa magnitude toplinskog vala (HWMId) te anomalije meteoroloških polja za proljetnu i ljetnu sezonu te su definirani indeksi na temelju anomalije SST-a koji su korelirani s ranije spomenutim veličinama. Dobiveni pozitivni koeficijenti korelacije na dijagramima raspršenja i na korelacijskim mapama za proljetno-ljetni i ljetno-ljetni slučaj upućuju na moguću vezu proljetnih anomalija SST-a u Atlantskom oceanu sa stvaranjem pogodnih uvjeta za pojavu, dužinu i jačinu ljetnih toplinskih valova u Europi te ukazuju na mogućnost primjene indeksa koji se temelji na anomalijama SST-a u sezonskoj prediktabilnosti toplinskih valova.

Abstract (english)

Heatwaves are periods of unusual hot weather persisting for several consecutive days. Frequency and intensity of heatwaves increased in recent decades; these events have a great impact on public health and economy, especially in urban regions. Europe experienced exceptionaly strong events in 2003 and 2010. Causes and machanisms responsible for heatwaves were explored in previous studies, including impact of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA).

In attempt to investigate impact of interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic ocean, two ensemble simulations by SPEEDY model were used. Ensembles were produced by two experiments; CTRL, where interannual varibility of SST is included, and the other, CLIM, with climatological values of SST in every year. The signal observed in CTRL experiment are mainly stronger than those in CLIM experiment. Heatwave Magnitude Index (HWMId) spacial distribution as well as the anomalies of other meteorological variables for spring and summer season were analysed. Indices based on SSTA were defined and correlated with anomalies of variables mentioned above. Statisticaly significant, positive correlation coefficients were found both, in scatter diagrams and correlation maps (spring-summer and spring-spring cases). This result refers to possible relationship between spring North Atlantic SSTAs and formation of favourable conditions for European heatwave occurrence. There is a possible application of SSTA based indices in seasonal forecasting of heatwaves.

• Keywords: toplinski valovi; HWMId; međugodišnja varijabilnost; anomalija SST; sezonska prediktabilnost
• Keywords (english): heatwave; HWMId; interannual variability; SST anomaly; seasonal predictability
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:953338
• Project: Number: UIP-2017-05-6396; Title: Klimatske promjene i varijabilnost u Hrvatskoj – od globalnih utjecaja do lokalnih zelenih rješenja; Title: Croatian climate variability and change – from global impacts to local green solutions; Acronym: CroClimGoGreen; Leader: Ivana Herceg Bulić; Jurisdiction: Croatia; Funder: HRZZ; Funding stream: UIP
• Study programme: Title: Graduate university study pf Physics - Geophysics; specializations in: Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior, Meteorology and Physical Oceanography; Course: Meteorology and Physical Oceanography; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike (magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2021-11-05 10:09:22