Sinoptički i mezoskalni uvjeti bujičnih poplava na području Hrvatske

master's thesis

• Title (english): Synoptic and mesoscale conditions of flash floods in Croatia
• Author: Klara Severić
• Mentor: Tanja Renko (mentor)
• Mentor: Maja Telišman Prtenjak (komentor)
• Committee member: Tanja Renko (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Maja Telišman Prtenjak (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Antun Marki (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Snježana Markušić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Branimir Omazić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Iva Dasović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Geophysics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-10-09, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Geophysics; Meteorology and Climatology

Abstract

Analizirani su događaji bujičnih poplava koji su nastali iz konvektivnih sustava na području Hrvatske u razdoblju od 2012. do 2022. godine. Pregledom biltena Državnog hidrometeorološkog zavoda i zapisa u medijima o događajima obilnih oborina izdvojeni su slučajevi bujičnih poplava te je provedena dodatna analiza grmljavinske aktivnosti nakon čega je odabrano ukupno 97 slučajeva. Cilj rada je bio napraviti prostornu i vremensku razdiobu događaja te opisati sinoptičke i mezoskalne uvjete koji pogoduju nastanku bujičnih poplava. Kao jedna od sve češćih i intenzivnijih vremenskih nepogoda, bujične poplave uzrokuju značajne materijalne štete, a ponekad i ljudske žrtve. Zbog spoja meteoroloških i hidroloških uvjeta koji uzrokuju bujične poplave, njihovo prognoziranje je izuzetno zahtjevno. U ovom radu stavljen je naglasak na meteorološke uvjete, odnosno na traženje meteoroloških uzroka koji su nužni za nastanak konvekcije, a zatim i obilne oborine koja nastaje iz konvektivnih sustava te uzrokuje bujične poplave.
Događaji bujičnih poplava većim djelom su zastupljeni u primorskom djelu Hrvatske, ali je svake godine barem jedna događaj zabilježen i u kontinentalnom djelu. Najveći broj slučajeva događa se u ljetnoj i jesenskoj sezoni kada je i najizraženija konvektivna aktivnost te u poslijepodnevnim satima i tijekom noći. Analizom visinskih sinoptičkih karti na 500 hPa plohi, najčešće je zastupljen jugozapadni režim strujanja. Za mezoskalnu analizu izračunati su termodinamički i kinematički parametri iz odabranih radiosondažnih mjerenja koja su bila reprezentativna za 87 slučajeva. Dobiveno je da bujične poplave nastaju u uvjetima srednjeg iznosa CAPE-a, ali velike relativne vlažnosti i oborive vode kroz duboki atmosferski sloj uz slabo do umjereno vertikalno smicanje vjetra.

Abstract (english)

Flash flood events which are developed from convective system on territory of Croatia in the period from 2012 to 2022 were analyzed. By reviewing the bulletins of the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service and records in the media about the events of heavy precipitation, cases of flash floods were isolated, after which an additional analysis of thunderstorm activity was carried out. Out of those a total of 97 cases were selected. The goal of the research was to conduct a spatial and temporal distribution of events and to describe the synoptic and mesoscale conditions that favor the occurrence of flash floods. As one of the increasingly frequent and intense weather disasters, flash floods cause considerable material damage and sometimes human casualties. Due to the combination of meteorological and hydrological conditions that cause flash floods, their forecasting is extremely challenging. In this paper, the emphasis is on meteorological conditions, i.e. on searching for ingredients that are necessary for the occurrence of convection, and then the heavy precipitation which occurs from convective systems and causes flash floods.
Flash flood events are mostly represented in the coastal part of Croatia, but every year at least one event is recorded in the continental part. The largest number of cases occurs in the summer and autumn seasons, and in the afternoon and during the night when the convective activity is most pronounced. After analysis of upper-level synoptic charts at the 500 hPa level, the southwesterly flow regime is most often represented. For mesoscale analysis, thermodynamic and kinematic parameters were calculated from selected radiosonde measurements that were representative for 87 cases. It was found that flash floods occur in conditions of medium CAPE, but with high relative humidity and precipitable water through the deep atmospheric layer and weak to moderate vertical wind shear.

• Keywords: konvekcija; obilna oborina; bujična poplava; Hrvatska
• Keywords (english): convection; heavy precipitation; flash flood; Croatia
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:977185
• Study programme: Title: graduate academic research programme: Master of Physics – geophysics, modules: Seismology and solid Earth physics, Meteorology and physical oceanography; specializations in: Seismology and solid Earth physics, Meteorology and physical oceanography; Course: Meteorology and physical oceanography; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar fizike – geofizike (sveučilišni magistar fizike – geofizike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-10-18 16:03:25