Pojava ekstremnih temperatura u Hrvatskoj: opaženi trendovi i buduće projekcije

master's thesis

• Title (english): Extreme temperature events in Croatia: observed trends and future projections
• Author: Bruno Uroda
• Mentor: Ivan Čanjevac (mentor)
• Mentor: Mladen Maradin (sumentor)
• Committee member: Ivan Čanjevac (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Mladen Maradin (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Kristina Pikelj (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Perica Mustafić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ivan Šulc (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Geography); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-12-17, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: INTERDISCIPLINARY AREAS OF KNOWLEDGE; Geography

Abstract

Ovaj rad bavi se analizom ekstremnih temperaturnih događaja u Hrvatskoj, s posebnim naglaskom na gradove Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, Hvar i Osijek. Cilj istraživanja bio je ispitati intenzitet i učestalost ekstremnih temperatura u posljednja dva standardna razdoblja, te procijeniti buduće promjene do 2070. godine koristeći regionalni klimatski model RegCM4 u scenarijima RCP4.5 i RCP8.5. Korištene su statističke metode, poput Mann-Kendallovog testa, Senov procjenitelj nagiba i analiza ekstremnih vrijednosti (EVA), uz izračun klimatskih indeksa (EHD, SU25, Tmax95, HE). Rezultati upućuju na značajan porast intenziteta i učestalosti ekstremnih temperatura od 1991. nadalje, s izraženijim trendovima u kontinentalnim područjima zbog urbanizacije i izostanka ublažavajućeg utjecaja mora. Projekcije budućih promjena ukazuju na daljnji razvoj ekstremnih temperaturnih događaja, osobito pod scenarijem RCP8.5. Zaključci ističu potrebu za sveobuhvatnim mjerama prilagodbe i smanjenja emisija stakleničkih plinova kako bi se ublažili negativni učinci klimatskih promjena. Ovaj rad doprinosi boljem razumijevanju dugoročnih temperaturnih trendova u Hrvatskoj te predstavlja temelj za razvoj znanstveno utemeljenih politika prilagodbe i ublažavanja klimatskih promjena.

Abstract (english)

This study focuses on the analysis of extreme temperature events in Croatia, with a specific emphasis on the cities of Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, Hvar, and Osijek. The primary focus was to examine the intensity and frequency of extreme temperatures during the last two standard climatological periods and to project future changes up to year 2070 using the regional climate model RegCM4 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, and Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) were employed, alongside the calculation of climate indices (EHD, SU25, Tmax95, HE). The results indicate a significant increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme temperature events since 1991, with more pronounced trends observed in continental regions, likely driven by urbanization and the absence of the moderating influence of the sea. Future projections highlight a continued escalation of extreme temperature events, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario. The findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive adaptation measures and greenhouse gas emission reductions to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of long-term temperature trends in Croatia and provides a scientific basis for the development of evidence-based adaptation and mitigation policies.

• Keywords: ekstremne temperature; Mann-Kendallov test; klimatski indeksi; klimatske promjene; RegCM4; Hrvatska; GEV distribucija
• Keywords (english): Extreme temperatures; Mann-Kendall test; climate indices; climate change; RegCM4; Croatia; GEV distribution
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:266965
• Study programme: Title: Graduate study; specializations in: research; Course: research; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni/a magistar/magistra geografije (sveučilišni/a magistar/magistra geografije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-12-20 11:03:22