Analiza fenoloških karakteristika vinove loze primjenom statističkih modela i modelom razvoja biljaka u sadašnjim i budućim klimatskim uvjetima

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of the grapevine phenological characteristics by statistical models and a plant model in present and future climate
• Author: Josip Meštrić
• Mentor: Maja Telišman-Prtenjak (mentor)
• Mentor: Branimir Omazić (sumentor); MBZ: 389313
• Committee member: Maja Telišman-Prtenjak (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Antun Marki (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ivica Sović (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Željko Večenaj (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Iva Dasović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Geophysics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2022-09-14, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Geophysics; Meteorology and Climatology

Abstract

Ovaj rad bavi se proučavanjem utjecaja meteoroloških uvjeta na trendove početka određenih fenoloških faza vinove loze. U tu svrhu koristili su se osnovni agroklimatološki indeksi GDD i GST. Također, upotrebom statističkih modela simulirali su se nastupi fenoloških faza pupanja, cvatnje, šare i berbe. Statistički pristup kombiniran je i primjenom modela za rast biljaka (model STICS). Sam model STICS testiran je na mjerenjima za dvije sorte vinove loze (’Graševina’ i ’Plavac mali’) i na četiri lokacije; dvije smještene u unutrašnjosti Hrvatske (Daruvar i Križevci) te na dvijema uz obalu Jadrana (Hvar i Lastovo). Uspješnost statističkog modela na temelju akumulirane topline pokazala se vrlo dobrom za sve postaje za berbu kao i za cvatnju, osim postaje Hvar. Lošiji rezultati dobili su se za šaru na gotovo svim postajama te za pupanje izuzev postaje Daruvar. Višestruka linearna regresija pokazala je manju uspješnost. Prilikom mjerenja model STICS pokazao je zadovoljavajuće rezultate na tri od četiri promatrane postaje. Model STICS primijenjen je i na izlazne rezultate klimatskog modela koji je dao rezultate u dva razdoblja: 1999.-2009. godine te 2043.-2053. godine. Navedeni model pokazao se učinkovitim i samim time primjenjivim za simulaciju nastupa fenoloških faza. Uz navedeno, simulirao je i raniji nastup fenofaza u budućoj klimi za gotovo sve postaje.

Abstract (english)

This paper deals with analyzing the influence of meteorological conditions on the starting trends of certain phenological phases of grapevine. For this purpose, the basic agroclimatic indexes GDD and GST were used. In addition, the occurances of different phenological phases, that being budding, flowering, veraisoning and harvesting, were also simulated using statistical models. This statistical approach is also combined with the application of a plant growth model (STICS model). The STICS model itself was tested on measurements for two grapevine varieties (’Graševina’ and ’Plavac mali’) and on four locations; two of which were located in the interior of Croatia (Daruvar and Križevci), while the other two were on the Adriatic coast (Hvar and Lastovo). The success of the statistical model based on accumulated heat was proven to be very good for all harvesting and flowering stations, except for the Hvar station. Worse results were obtained for chara at almost all stations, as well as for budding, with the exception of the Daruvar station. Multiple linear regression showed less success. During the measuring process, the STICS model showed satisfactory results at three of the four observed stations. The STICS model was also applied to the output results of the climate model, which produced results in two periods: 1999-2009. and 2043-2053. The mentioned model was proven to be effective and therefore applicable for simulations of the performance of different phenological phases. In addition, it simulated the earlier occurrence of phenophases in the future climate for almost all stations.

• Keywords: agroklimatologija; agroklimatološki indeks; STICS model; COSMO model; vinova loza; fenološke faze
• Keywords (english): agroclimatology; agroclimatic index; STICS model; COSMO model; vine; phenological stages
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:486370
• Project: Number: IZHRZO-180587; Title: Severe weather over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a changing climate; Title: Severe weather over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a changing climate; Acronym: SWALDRIC; Leader: Maja Telišman Prtenjak; Jurisdiction: Croatia; Funder: HRZZ; Funding stream: HSIP
• Study programme: Title: Graduate university study pf Physics - Geophysics; specializations in: Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior, Meteorology and Physical Oceanography; Course: Meteorology and Physical Oceanography; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike (magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2022-09-19 10:27:25