Analiza i projekcija globalne morske razine pomoću poluempirijske metode

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis and projection of global sea level with the aid of a semi-empirical method
• Author: Ela Kovačić
• Mentor: Mirko Orlić (mentor)
• Mentor: Zoran Pasarić (komentor)
• Committee member: Mirko Orlić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Zvjezdana Bencetić Klaić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Marijan Herak (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Zoran Pasarić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ivica Sović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Geophysics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2022-10-27, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Geophysics; Physical Oceanography

Abstract

U radu je korištena poluempirijska fizikalna relacija globalne razine mora i globalne temperature zraka. Ortogonalnom regresijom podataka određeni su inercijalni i ravnotežni koeficijenti koji služe za izračun vremena odziva mora. Pretpostavka je da odziv razine mora na temperaturno forsiranje predstavlja kombinaciju inercijalnog i ravnotežnog odziva. Na podatke razine mora primijenjene su korekcije antropogenih doprinosa kopnenih voda kako bi se promatrao utjecaj promjene temperature na promjenu razine mora. Razlikujemo slučajeve kada nemamo primijenjenu korekciju za kopnene vode, kada imamo primijenjenu korekciju za kopnene vode za oba doprinosa (crpljenje podzemnih voda i zadržavanje vode branama) ili kada se uvaži jedan od
doprinosa. Razdoblje analize podataka ortogonalnom regresijom je od 1880. do 2001. godine. U radu je pokazan veći doprinos brana od doprinosa crpljenja podzemnih voda. Uzimajući u obzir inercijalnu i ravnotežnu dinamiku, vrijeme odziva je u rasponu od 36 do 43 godine što je u skladu s rezultatima iz rada Orlić i Pasarić (2015). Izrađene su projekcije razine mora do 2100. godine uz pomoć inercijalnog i ravnotežnog koeficijenta te projekcija temperature IPCC-a. Prema umjerenom scenariju porasta koncentracije stakleničkih plinova, ukupan porast razine mora od 2001. do 2100. godine iznosio bi 70 cm kada nema korekcije za kopnene vode, 86 cm kada je uvažen doprinos brana i 80 cm kada su uvažena oba antropogena doprinosa. Grafički su prikazani slučajevi za tri različita scenarija emisije stakleničkih plinova.

Abstract (english)

Semi-empirical physical relationship between global temperature and sea level is used in this paper. Equilibrium and inertial parameters are determined from the data with the aid of orthogonal regression in order to calculate response times. Assumption is made that response time of sea level to temperature forcing is caused by a combination of inertial and equilibrium response times. Corrections were applied on the sea level data for anthropogenic terrestrial water storage to estimate sea level change in response to temperature forcing. We distinguish between cases where corrections for both anthropogenic terrestrial water storage contributions (groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment), corrections for only one of the contributions and no corrections are taken into account. The time interval of data analysis with the aid of orthogonal regression is between 1880 to 2001. In this paper, it is shown that the reservoir impoundment is dominating over the groundwater depletion. If the equilibrium and the inertial dynamics are taken into account, the response time is in the range between 36 to 43 years. These values are similar to the response times given in the paper by Orlić i Pasarić (2015). Using inertial and equilibrium coefficients and IPCC temperature projections, sea level projections are carried out up until 2100. For the moderate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, the lowest projection of sea level rise from 2001 to 2100 is 70 cm when there are no corrections applied, 86 cm when a correction for reservoir impoundment is applied and 80 cm when both groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment are taken into account. Cases related to three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions are illustrated graphically.

• Keywords: poluempirijska metoda; ortogonalna regresija; kopnene vode; vrijeme odziva; projekcije razine mora
• Keywords (english): semiempirical method; orthogonal regression; terrestrial water storage; response time; sea level projections
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:291083
• Study programme: Title: Graduate university study pf Physics - Geophysics; specializations in: Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior, Meteorology and Physical Oceanography; Course: Meteorology and Physical Oceanography; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike (magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2022-11-03 10:06:35