Ekstremne temperature na području Europe i njihova povezanost s modovima klimatske varijabilnosti

master's thesis

• Title (english): Extreme temperatures in Europe and their connection with modes of climate variability
• Author: Karla Mlađen
• Mentor: Ivana Herceg Bulić (mentor)
• Committee member: Ivana Herceg Bulić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Zvjezdana Bencetić Klaić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Josip Stipčević (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Iva Dasović (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Maja Telišman Prtenjak (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Geophysics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2023-12-07, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Geophysics; Meteorology and Climatology

Abstract

Klimatske promjene postaju sve intenzivnije i brže. One ne utječu samo na srednje vrijednosti klimatskih varijabli, već pridonose i pojavi njihovih ekstrema. Europa se zagrijava dvostruko brže od ostatka svijeta, što ju čini posebno ranjivim područjem kada je u pitanju pojava ekstremnih temperatura.
Osim promjena uvjetovanih antropogenim djelovanjem, klimatski sustav podložan je varijacijama koje su posljedica prirodnih oscilacija unutar samog sustava. Takve varijacije manifestiraju se na različitim vremenskim i prostornim skalama. U ovom radu istražuju se četiri ključna moda klimatske varijabilnosti koji imaju značajan utjecaj na klimatsku varijabilnost područja sjevernog Atlantika i Europe (NAO, EA, SCAND, EAWR) te ENSO, kao najznačajniji atmosfersko-oceanski fenomen na globalnoj razini.
Osnovni cilj rada jest opisati najvažnije karakteristike sezonske vremenske i prostorne temperaturne varijabilnosti za europsko područje u razdoblju od 1950. do 2022. godine te ispitati povezanosti klimatskih modova i ekstremnih temperatura u različitim područjima. U ovom radu je analizirana srednja dnevna, minimalna te maksimalna temperatura. Vremenske promjene analizirane na temelju izračunatih temperaturnih trendova i omjera srednjih iznosa promatranih parametara za dva razdoblja: 1951.-1980. i 1991.-2020. Rezultati upućuju kako u recentnom razdoblju veći dio kontinenta bilježi više temperature, dok se neka područja, kao što su dijelovi Turske, Italije, Balkanskog poluotoka i šire područje Kavkaza, ubrzano zagrijavaju. Polja odziva temperatura za promatrane modove pokazuju sezonsku i prostornu varijabilnost. EA se istaknuo kao mod s najizraženijim učinkom na temperature u Europi. Polja NAO, SCAND i EAWR imaju značajan učinak, dok je ENSO-ov utjecaj očekivano slab. Na područje Hrvatske najistaknutiji učinak imaju modovi EA i SCAND koji posebice u ljetnoj sezoni značajno utječu na maksimalne temperature.

Abstract (english)

Climate change is becoming more intense and rapid. It not only affects the mean values of climate variables but also contributes to the occurrence of extremes. Europe is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, making it a particularly vulnerable region when it comes to extreme temperatures.
In addition to changes induced by anthropogenic activities, the climate system is subject to variations resulting from natural oscillations within the system itself. These variations manifest on different temporal and spatial scales. This study investigates four key modes of climate variability that significantly influence the climate variability of the North Atlantic and Europe (NAO, EA, SCAND, EAWR), as well as ENSO, the most significant atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon globally.
The main objective of the study is to describe the essential characteristics of seasonal weather and spatial temperature variability for the Europe from 1950 to 2022. It also aims to examine the connections between climate modes and extreme temperatures in different regions. The study analyzes mean daily, minimum, and maximum temperatures. Temperature trends and ratios are determined for two periods: 1951-1980 and 1991-2020. The results indicate that in the latter period, most of the continent experiences higher temperatures, while some areas, such as parts of Turkey, Italy, the Balkan Peninsula, and the broader Caucasus region, are rapidly warming. Temperature patterns associated with different modes exhibit seasonal and spatial variability. EA stood out as the mode with the most pronounced impact on temperatures in Europe. NAO, SCAND, and EAWR have a significant effect, while ENSO, as expected, has a weak influence. For the area of Croatia, the EA and SCAND modes have the most prominent effect, which significantly affect the maximum temperatures, especially in the summer season.

• Keywords: ekstremna temperatura; sezonska varijabilnost; temperaturni trendovi; modovi klimatske varijabilnosti; daljinske veze
• Keywords (english): extreme temperature; seasonal variability; temperature trends; modes of climate variability; teleconnections
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:545588
• Study programme: Title: graduate academic research programme: Master of Physics – geophysics, modules: Seismology and solid Earth physics, Meteorology and physical oceanography; specializations in: Seismology and solid Earth physics, Meteorology and physical oceanography; Course: Meteorology and physical oceanography; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar fizike – geofizike (sveučilišni magistar fizike – geofizike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Embargoed access; Embargo expiration date: 2025-12-07
• Created on: 2024-01-03 12:42:43