Ekstremni događaji tuče nad sjeverozapadnom Hrvatskom

master's thesis

• Title (english): Extreme hail events over northwestern Croatia
• Author: Karla Jambrošić
• Mentor: Maja Telišman Prtenjak (mentor)
• Mentor: Barbara Malečić (pomoć pri izradi, neposredni voditelj)
• Committee member: Maja Telišman Prtenjak (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Željko Večenaj (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Tena Belinić Topić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Antun Marki (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Iva Dasović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Geophysics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2023-12-21, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Geophysics; Meteorology and Climatology

Abstract

U ovom radu korišten je model WRF-HAILCAST kako bi se simulirala dva (ekstremna) slučaja tuče koja su se dogodila tijekom 2022. godine na području sjeverozapadne Hrvatske. Analiza ovih događaja uključila je pregled sinoptičkih karata, analizu radiosondaža s postaje Zagreb - Maksimir i praćenje prizemnih mjerenja meteoroloških parametara. Mezoskalnim numeričkim modelom WRF-HAILCAST visoke razlučivosti pokušali su se reproducirati atmosferski uvjeti tijekom odabrana dva dana, s posebnim naglaskom na razvoj konvekcije i formiranje tuče. Cilj rada bilo je procijeniti koliko je uspješno model simulirao tuču i mogu li su ovi događaji zaista smatrati ekstremnima. Modelirane prostorne raspodjele tuče uspoređene su s opaženim vrijednostima tuče prikupljenim na prizemnim postajama DHMZ-a, kao i s europskom bazom podataka o opasnim vremenskim pojavama. Također, modelirani potencijal za razvoj munja uspoređen je s mjerenjima udara munja iz mreže LINET. U slučaju 25. svibnja 2022. model je ponegdje precijenio pojavu tuče, dok je je na dan 2. lipnja 2022. na nekim područjima podcijenio. Osim toga, rezultati su pokazali da je model podcijenio veličinu zrna tuče u oba slučaja. Unatoč ovim odstupanjima, kategoričke metrike su ukazivale na zadovoljavajuće rezultate, sugerirajući da je model uspješno simulirao uvjete za razvoj konvekcije i formiranje tuče.

Abstract (english)

In this study, the WRF-HAILCAST model was used to simulate two (extreme) hail events that occurred in 2022 in the northwest region of Croatia. The analysis of these events included a review of synoptic charts, an examination of radiosonde profiles from the Zagreb - Maksimir station, and the monitoring of surface meteorological parameter measurements. The high-resolution mesoscale numerical model WRF-HAILCAST was used to recreate the atmospheric conditions during the chosen two days, with a specific emphasis on the evolution of convection and the formation of hail. The objective of this study was to evaluate the model’s ability to accurately simulate hail events and determine the extent to which these events could be classified as extreme. Simulated spatial distributions of hail were compared to observed hail reports collected from the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service’s surface stations, as well as with a European Severe Weather Database. Furthermore, the simulated potential for lightning activity was compared to lightning data provided by LINET network. On 25 May 2022, the model overestimated the occurrence of hail in specific areas, whereas on 2 June 2022, it underestimated hail events in certain regions. Furthermore, the results indicated that the model underestimated hailstone size in both cases. Despite these deviations, verification measures suggested satisfactory results, indicating that the model successfully simulated the conditions for development of convection and the formation of hail.

• Keywords: konvekcija; tuča; WRF-HAILCAST
• Keywords (english): convection; hail; WRF-HAILCAST
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:899056
• Project: Number: IZHRZO-180587; Title: Severe weather over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a changing climate; Title: Severe weather over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a changing climate; Acronym: SWALDRIC; Leader: Maja Telišman Prtenjak; Jurisdiction: Croatia; Funder: HRZZ; Funding stream: HSIP
• Study programme: Title: graduate academic research programme: Master of Physics – geophysics, modules: Seismology and solid Earth physics, Meteorology and physical oceanography; specializations in: Seismology and solid Earth physics, Meteorology and physical oceanography; Course: Meteorology and physical oceanography; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar fizike – geofizike (sveučilišni magistar fizike – geofizike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Embargoed access; Embargo expiration date: 2024-12-21
• Created on: 2024-01-03 13:55:44