Model sekularne stagnacije

master's thesis

• Title (english): A model of secular stagnation
• Author: Nika Štampalija
• Mentor: Boris Cota (mentor)
• Committee member: Boris Cota (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Damir Bakić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Siniša Slijepčević (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Boris Muha (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Mathematics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2023-09-28, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Mathematics

Abstract

U diplomskom radu analizira se ravnoteža u jednostavnijoj ekonomiji gdje se u modelu s tri perioda promatraju utjecaji varijabli na ravnotežnu kamatnu stopu. Model se potom proširuje uvođenjem cijena, plaća i nominalnih kamatnih stopa te se analizira odnos između proizvodnje i inflacije, koji se razlikuje od onog iz standardnog novokeynesijanskog modela. Također uvode se financijska nominalna trenja kroz rigidnost plaća s kojom središnja banka ima mogućnost postavljanja inflacije ispod ciljane. Analizira se utjecaj monetarne i fiskalne politike, gdje u uvjetima zamke likvidnosti, monetarna politika nema mogućnost otklanjanja ravnotežnog stanja sekularne stagnacije dok fiskalna politika ima. Modelirani su porezi, javni dug i javni rashodi te se model proširuje na 56-periodni model s dodatnim svojstvima koji se kalibrira određenim momentima iz prošlosti SAD-a. Model uspješno generira trajno negativne kamatne stope te postoji lokalno određeno ravnotežno stanje u sekularnoj stagnaciji. Rad završava zaključkom i raspravom o važnostima hipoteze sekularne stagnacije za daljnju ekonomsku politiku.

Abstract (english)

In the master’s thesis, an analysis is conducted on the equilibrium in a simpler economy, where the three period model examines the impacts of variables on the equilibrium interest rate. The model is then extended by introducing prices, wages, and nominal interest rates, and the relationship between production and inflation is analyzed, which differs from that in the standard New Keynesian model. Financial nominal frictions are also introduced through wage rigidity, with the central bank having the ability to set inflation below the target. The influence of monetary and fiscal policies is analyzed, where, in liquidity trap conditions, monetary policy does not have the ability to eliminate the equilibrium state of secular stagnation, while fiscal policy does. Taxes, public debt, and public expenditures are modeled, and the model is expanded to a 56-period model with additional features calibrated to specific moments from the U.S. past. The model successfully generates permanently negative interest rates, and there exists a locally determined equilibrium state in secular stagnation. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the secular stagnation hypothesis for further economic policy.

• Keywords: ravnotežna kamatna stopa; nominalne kamatne stope; novokeynesijanski model
• Keywords (english): equilibrium interest rate; nominal interest rate; New Keynesian model
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:503820
• Study programme: Title: Financial and Business Mathematics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar matematike (sveučilišni magistar matematike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-02-06 12:21:28