CLIMATE TRENDS, VARIABILITY AND EXTREMES IN THE ADRIATIC REGION BASED ON KILOMETRE–SCALE MODELLING

doctoral thesis

• Title (english): KLIMATSKI TRENDOVI, VARIJABILNOST I EKSTREMI U JADRANSKOM PODRUČJU NA TEMELJU MODELIRANJA NA KILOMETARSKOJ SKALI
• Author: Iva Tojčić
• Mentor: Clea Lumina Denamiel (mentor)
• Committee member: Danijel Belušić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Žarko Kovač (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ivica Vilibić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Geology); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-09-23, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Interdisciplinary Natural Sciences; Marine Science
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 55 - Geology. Meteorology. Hydrology

Abstract

This thesis explores the novel application of an ultra-high-resolution atmosphere-ocean model, Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), to simulate the complex climate of the Adriatic region. The kilometre-scale resolution of AdriSC allows for the precise simulation of local processes such as bora dynamics and dense water formation, which are crucial in shaping the regional climate. The model proves effective in capturing the BiOS–driven variability in the Adriatic Sea, previously unaddressed by coarser resolution models. Extensive and profound changes in trends, variability, and extremes in the Adriatic region, due to ongoing and projected future climate variations, are identified and quantified: (1) strong land-sea contrasts in the atmosphere, (2) intensification of the heatwaves and most likely of the extreme rainfalls and droughts, (3) dense water formation in the northern Adriatic likely to be strongly reduced, (4) potential intensification of the surface saline lake effect during summer, (5) southern Adriatic cyclonic gyre likely to be shrinking and intensifying, and (6) strengthening of the vertical stratification over the SAP. Given the potential negative impact of these climate events for environment, humans, and for various economic sectors, understanding, and predicting these changes is crucial for policymakers and local communities to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Consequently, the AdriSC climate simulation might be eventually generalized by implementing and running an ensemble of kilometre-scale atmosphere-ocean models under more climate scenarios in the Adriatic region, but in a smart way taking into account an extensive computational demand that such simulations require.

Abstract (english)

Ova disertacija istražuje primjenu združenog atmosfersko-oceanskog modela ultra-visoke rezolucije, Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC), za simulaciju složene klime jadranskog područja. Kilometarska razlučivost AdriSC modela omogućuje vjerodostojnu simulaciju lokalnih procesa poput dinamike bure i stvaranja guste vode, koji su ključni za oblikovanje regionalne klime atmosphere i mora. Model se pokazao učinkovitim u reproduciranju varijabilnosti u Jadranskom moru uzrokovanoj Jadransko-jonskom bimodalnom oscilacijom (BiOS), što prijašnji modeli, s grubljom razlučivosti, nisu postigli. Identificirane su i kvantificirane sveobuhvatne i značajne promjene u trendovima, varijabilnosti i ekstremima u jadranskom području zbog aktualnih i predviđenih budućih klimatskih promjena: (1) snažni kontrasti kopno-more u atmosferi, (2) intenzifikacija toplinskih valova i posljedično ekstremnih oborina i suša, (3) smanjenje stvaranja guste vode u sjevernom Jadranu, (4) potencijalno jačanje efekta površinskih slanih jezera tijekom ljeta, (5) smanjenje obujma uz istovremeno jačanje južnojadranskog ciklonalnog vrtloga, te (6) jačanje vertikalne stratifikacije u Južnojadranskoj kotlini. S obzirom na negativne učinke takvih klimatskih promjena na ljude i različite gospodarske sektore, razumijevanje i predviđanje ovih promjena ključno je za donositelje odluka i lokalne zajednice kako bi razvili učinkovite strategije prilagodbe i ublažavanja. Stoga je preporuka ovaj prototip kilometarskog klimatskog modela primijeniti i za analize ansambla klimatskih simulacija za više scenarija klimatskih promjena u jadranskom području, pri tom primijenjujući “pametnu” optimizaciju računalnih resursa koje ovakve simulacije zahtijevaju.

• Keywords: Adriatic region; far-future climate; extreme warming; kilometre-scale atmosphere-ocean modelling
• Keywords (english): jadransko područje; buduća klima; ekstremno zagrijavanje; modeliranje atmosfere i mora na kilometarskoj skali
• Language: english
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:086992
• Promotion: 2025
• Project: Number: DOK-2021-02-7189; Title: Numerical modelling of the Adriatic.Ionian decadal and interannual oscillations: from realistic simulations to process-oriented experiments; Leader: Clea Denamiel; Jurisdiction: Croatia; Funder: Hrvatska zaklada za znanost; Funding stream: Research Projects
• Study programme: Title: DOCTORAL STUDY OF OCEANOLOGY; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti u području prirodnih znanosti (doktor/doktorica znanosti u području prirodnih znanosti)
• Type of resource: Text
• Extent: 190 str. ; 30 cm
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2025-01-30 13:29:59