Demografski razvoj i projekcije budućeg kretanja stanovništva Grada Pule

master's thesis

• Title (english): Demographic Development and Population Projections of the City of Pula
• Author: Robi Barbić
• Mentor: Ivan Zupanc (mentor)
• Committee member: Ivan Zupanc (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Aleksandar Lukić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Vedran Prelogović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Geography); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2016-02-22, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: INTERDISCIPLINARY AREAS OF KNOWLEDGE; Geography

Abstract

U radu se analizira demografski razvoj Grada Pule od 1857. do 2011. godine i izrađuju projekcije budućeg kretanja broja stanovnika do 2031. godine. Demografski razvoj Pule vrlo je skokovit i dinamičan, te je pod utjecajem vanjskih faktora. Današnje stanovništvo karakterizira nepovoljna dobna struktura s velikim udjelom starog stanovništva. Metodama demografske projekcije određuje se broj i sastav stanovništva u budućnosti. One imaju vrlo široku znanstvenu i praktičnu primjenu. Buduće kretanje broja stanovnika Grada Pule izračunato je „analitičkom“ metodom. Na temelju postavljenih hipoteza o fertilitetu izračunata je projekcija u tri varijante, od kojih svaka ima još tri podvarijante. Prema srednjoj varijanti s pozitivnim migracijskim saldom broj stanovnika Pule 2021. (57.685) bit će veći nego 2011. (57.460), a do 2031. broj će se stanovnika smanjiti i iznositi 55.648. Dobni sastav stanovništva bit će još nepovoljniji ukoliko se nastave aktualni trendovi.

Abstract (english)

This thesis analyzes the demographic development of the City of Pula from 1857 to 2011 and it also makes future projections of the population's quantitative movement up to the year 2031. Pula's demographic development is very sharp and dynamic, and is influenced by external factors. Today's population is characterized by unfavorable age structure with a large proportion of the older population. The number and the composition of the population in the future is determined by methods of demographic projections. They have a broad range of scientific as well as practical applications. The future population trend of Pula is calculated with the “analytical” method. The calculated projection is based on the fertility hypothesis and has three versions with three subvariants each. According to the medium version of all three versions with a positive migration balance, the population of Pula in 2021 (57,685) will be bigger than in 2011 (57,460) and that number will again decline by 2031. And will amount to 55,648. If current trends continue, the age composition of the population will deteriorate even further.

• Keywords: stanovništvo; demografske projekcije; kretanje stanovništva; Grad Pula; sastav stanovništva
• Keywords (english): population; population projections; population trends; City of Pula; population structure
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:902682
• Study programme: Title: Geography; specializations in: Physical Geography with Geoecology, Spatial Planning and Regional Development, Heritage and Tourism, Geographic Information Systems; Course: Geographic Information Systems; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra geografije (magistar/magistra geografije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2018-02-02 21:02:54