Analiza modeliranih vrijednosti tuče dobivenih mezoskalnim numeričkim modelom

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of modelled hail parameters obtained by numerical mesoscale model
• Author: Karol Ćorko
• Mentor: Maja Telišman Prtenjak (mentor)
• Committee member: Maja Telišman Prtenjak (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Željko Večenaj (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ivica Sović (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Nataša Strelec Mahović (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Marijan Herak (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Geophysics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2019-12-12, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Geophysics; Meteorology and Climatology

Abstract

U radu su analizirana dva događaja tuče simulirana modelom WRF-HAILCAST. Dosadašnje su analize pokazale neujednačenost opažanja tuče nad područjem Hrvatske. Podaci se uglavnom mjere/opažaju u nizinskom dijelu na meteorološkim postajama te lansirnim postajama u sklopu obrane od tuče. Dodatno je postavljen posebno dizajniran poligon guste mreže tučomjera u sjeverozapadnoj Hrvatskoj. Cilj rada bio je ispitati uspješnost modeliranja mezoskalnim modelom visoke razlučivosti i pružiti daljnje smjernice za podešavanje modela čime bi se pospješila prognoza tuče. Model je uspio reproducirati sinoptičke uvjete koji su djelovali u promatranom razdoblju odnosno uvjete koji potiču razvoj olujnog nevremena. U obje epizode model je precijenio područje pogođeno tučom. Unatoč tome, zabilježene maksimalne promjere tuče u slučaju iz 2014. model je uspješno prognozirao (prostorno i vremenski te kategoriju tuče). Međutim, u slučaju epizode iz 2017. model nije uspio prognozirati (ni prostorno ni vremenski) tuču na području na kojem je ona zabilježena.

Abstract (english)

Former analyses showed disproportion in hail observations in Croatia. Due to a long history of hail suppression activities in the northern (lowland) part of Croatia, hailpads have been placed at main meteorological stations, locations used for hail suppression activities, as well as on a specifically designed polygon in north-western Croatia. Therefore, two selected hail events were simulated using the WRF-HAILCAST model and analysed in order to examine its performance in modelling and to provide guidance for tuning of hailcast results. The model successfully reproduced synoptic conditions favourable for developing stormy weather over northern Croatia during the analysed period. In both episodes, the model overestimated the affected area. Nevertheless, the measured maximum hail diameters in the 2014 episode were successfully captured (both spatially and temporally). However, for the 2017 episode, the measured maximum hail diameters were not forecasted (spatially nor temporally).

• Keywords: tuča; WRF-HAILCAST
• Keywords (english): hail; WRF-HAILCAST
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:958931
• Study programme: Title: Graduate university study pf Physics - Geophysics; specializations in: Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior, Meteorology and Physical Oceanography; Course: Meteorology and Physical Oceanography; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike (magistar/magistra fizike – geofizike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2019-12-16 08:25:44