Isplati li se transparentnost? Utjecaj proračunske transparentnosti na izborne rezultate u hrvatskim općinama i gradovima

master's thesis

• Title (english): Is transparency worth it? The impact of budget transparency on election results in Croatian municipalities and cities
• Author: Klaudia Babić
• Mentor: Katarina Ott (mentor)
• Committee member: Katarina Ott (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Zoran Vondraček (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Marcela Hanzer (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Siniša Slijepčević (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Science; (Department of Mathematics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-07-22, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Mathematics

Abstract

Cilj ovog rada bio je proučiti utjecaj lokalne proračunske transparentnosti na ishode lokalnih izbora. Postavljene su tri hipoteze i prikupljeni podaci o 128 gradova i 428 općina u Republici Hrvatskoj za 2017. godinu. Nezavisna varijabla bila je transparentnost lokalnog proračuna, a zavisne varijable bile su izlaznost građana na lokalnim izborima, rod izabranog nositelja vlasti te izabrana politička opcija. Hipotezama i podacima prilagođeni su ekonometrijski modeli. Jednostavna linearna regresija pokazala je da postoji statistički značajna i negativna koreliranost između transparentnosti i izlaznosti birača. Iz modela dobivenog multinomnom logističkom regresijom, na određenim razinama značajnosti, moglo se zaključiti da se niža razina transparentnosti pojavljuje kod političke opcije A (koja u ovom radu predstavlja HDZ i koalicije s HDZ-om) nego kod ostalih političkih opcija. Logističkom regresijom modeliran je utjecaj transparentnosti na rod izabranog nositelja vlasti, međutim, rezultati nisu pokazali postojanje veze između tih dviju varijabli.

Abstract (english)

The goal of this paper was to study the impact of local budget transparency on outcomes of local elections. Three hypotheses were set and data on 128 cities and 428 municipalities in the Republic of Croatia for the year 2017 were collected. The independent variable was the transparency of the local budget, and the dependent variables were the turnout of citizens in local elections, the gender of the elected mayor and the chosen political option. Econometric models were adapted to the hypotheses and data. Simple linear regression showed that there is a statistically significant and negative correlation between transparency and voter turnout. From the model obtained by multinomial logistic regression, at certain significance levels, it could be concluded that lower level of transparency occurs with political option A (which is represented in this paper by HDZ and coalitions with HDZ). Logistic regressions was used to model the impact of transparency on gender of the elected mayor, however, the results did not show that there is a correlation between the two variables.

• Keywords: proračunska transparentnost; lokalni izbori; jednostavna linearna regresija; multinomijalna logistička regresija
• Keywords (english): budgetary transparency; local elections; simple linear regression; multinomial logistic regression
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:266680
• Study programme: Title: Finance and Business Mathematics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra matematike (magistar/magistra matematike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2021-09-14 07:20:31