Size-dependent standard deviation for growth rates: Empirical results and theoretical modeling

Znanstveni rad - Izvorni znanstveni rad

• Autor: Boris Podobnik
• Autor: Davor Horvatić
• Autor: Fabio Pammolli
• Autor: Fengzhong Wang
• Autor: H. Eugene Stanley
• Autor: I. Grosse
• Autorova ustanova: Sveučilište u Zagrebu; Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet; (Fizički odsjek)
• Znanstveno / umjetničko područje, polje i grana: PRIRODNE ZNANOSTI; Fizika

Sažetak (engleski)

We study annual logarithmic growth rates R of various economic variables such as exports, imports, and foreign debt. For each of these variables we find that the distributions of R can be approximated by double exponential (Laplace) distributions in the central parts and power-law distributions in the tails. For each of these variables we further find a power-law dependence of the standard deviation sigma_R on the average size of the economic variable with a scaling exponent surprisingly close to that found for the gross domestic product (GDP) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 81, 3275 (1998)]. By analyzing annual logarithmic growth rates R of wages of 161 different occupations, we find a power-law dependence of the standard deviation sigma_R on the average value of the wages with a scaling exponent beta~0.14 close to those found for the growth of exports, imports, debt, and the growth of the GDP. In contrast to these findings, we observe for payroll data collected from 50 states of the USA that the standard deviation sigma_R of the annual logarithmic growth rate R increases monotonically with the average value of payroll. However, also in this case we observe a power-law dependence of sigma_R on the average payroll with a scaling exponent beta~− 0.08. Based on these observations we propose a stochastic process for multiple cross-correlated variables where for each variable (i) the distribution of logarithmic growth rates decays exponentially in the central part, (ii) the distribution of the logarithmic growth rate decays algebraically in the far tails, and (iii)Podobnik the standard deviation of the logarithmic growth rate depends algebraically on the average size of the stochastic variable.

• Ključne riječi (engleski): power law; Laplace distribution; growth rates
• Jezik: engleski
• Vrsta publikacije: Znanstveni rad - Izvorni znanstveni rad
• Status objave: Objavljen
• Vrsta recenzije: Recenziran - međunarodna recenzija
• Verzija publikacije: Objavljena verzija rada (izdavačev PDF)
• Naslov časopisa: Physical Review E
• Brojčani podaci: vol. 77, br. 5, 056102
• p-ISSN: 1539-3755
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.77.056102
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:217:312290
• Datum objave publikacije: 2008
• URL dokumenta: http://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevE.77.056102
• Vrsta resursa: Tekst
• Prava pristupa: Otvoreni pristup
• Javna napomena: Copyright (2008) by the American Physical Society. Received 26 September 2007; revised manuscript received 7 January 2008; published 8 May 2008.
• Datum i vrijeme pohrane: 2019-10-19 16:07:09